Bruce - that's a possibility, but in my totally amateur opinion, a distant one. I think you would have to see high energy costs sustained over a significant period of time to have a lasting effect on the economy, which in turn, would drive the feds to lower interest rates. If we have a cold winter increasing demand for home heating oil and natural gas, that may be a possibility, but even that is no guarantee of lower rates. For example, even now, with interest rates increasing, mortgage rates are staying low compared to historic norms. For now, there appears to be a disconnect between the fed's rate and mortgage rates. By all traditional reads, the mortgage rates should have shot up by now, but for some reason, they are staying low. Likely due to the fact that the short term rate by the feds is not directly tied to the long term rates for mortgages. Remember, less than ten years ago, a rate of 8.13% was considered good!
JC